There's only so far pure stats can get you. Sometimes you have to acknowledge numbers are not everything.
I have always been interested to hear what Kurkjian has to say. There is no doubt that he loves baseball with a passion few have. But I have always thought he had a creepy fetish with the numbers baseball provides. After reading his book, I was pretty sure the last time he had sex was when he blew his own wad in a hotel room writing an article about some triple play turned by a low level A-ball player during a day game on the road.
Now I know he's a one-trick-pony. And I'm bummed. I've been a fan of the MLB Network since it aired. I think it's because they have no nonsense ex-ballplayers who talk about how it was, and how it should be, from the trenches. When I watch Baseball Tonight these days, I see the Mickey Mouse ears trying to please their "targeted" audience. Who "targeted" this audience, anyway? I think it had to be some 40 year old exec who thinks they know what the current young baseball generation is - a bunch of stat monkeys who have the attention span of a five-year old (thank to the Internet) and want to be the first one in their group to throw out some meaningless stat that makes them feel like baseball jesus. Bleh.
So allow me to present when I felt Kurkjian "jumped the shark". In a summation of how the (First Place) Texas Rangers got to where they are this year, Kurkjian applauded the output of Elvis Andrus and what an improvement he was in the infield over the prior year. He said that Andrus was a "much improved replacement" to the "less than stellar Michael Young".
Hey, Dill...Michael Young won the Gold Glove last year. Now the statement that Andrus is better at short than Young does not bother me. But it's the matter-of-fact way Kurkjian laid his statement down. So it is Kurkjian, so it is said. Andrus is a pure "eye-ball guy". His stats are not phenomenal. He makes plenty of errors. Young does not. What I have expected Kurkjian to do is back up his statement with fact - but he has none. Young is, statistically a much better shortstop than Andrus... So WHY make this statement? It goes against everything Tim-ahy has ever said. I might be okay with this change in trend except he has beating me to death with stat after stat after stat after stat. And now - he doesn't even back up the Gold Glove winner with any stat-based facts.
If Kurkjian wants to set his new precedent of going with the eye-balls over the stats, so be it. But I will no longer be able to pay attention to his 30-second rants that describe how a second baseman's OPS rating in 1921 translates to a pitchers WHIP in 2008, thus declaring a catchers pitch selection in the top-fifth of his league, only to not be relative in the 2009 playoffs due to the manager's history of sending runners with one out and the infield at double play depth.
I guess I'm rambling, but here is my summation. Andrus is a better athlete at short than Young is. I can say that But I have never backed any of my infield thoughts with stats, only eye-balls. But Kurkjian never has, and now he's dissed the face of The First Place Texas Rangers. And I will never jump that shark. Unlike The Doctor, who likes to blow the shark.
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I gotta go with Kurk on this one. I checked the zone ratings, as what I found backed him up.
ReplyDeleteI'm taking Elvis' numbers, and muliplying them by four. Michael Young had 1289 innings last year, and Elvis has 322. A difference x4.
Soo...Young's OOZ plays (the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside his zone) last year? 41. Elvis' OOZ plays so far this year? 17. Muliply that by 4, and it equals 68. The kid gets to balls that the extremely white Young simply cannot.
On Elvis' small sample size this year, his Revised Zone Rating is .832. Young's last year? .850. Not that big a difference, and as Elvis progresses, his errors are sure to go down. Now... when you add the OOZ plays to his revised zone rating? Elvis makes more plays than Young did.
And finally, just using the good old Range Factor/Game, Young had a 4.36 last year. Last years league average was 3.84.
Elvis, this year, is at 5.05! The league average is 3.98. Elvis appears to be superior in every way.
Side note: Andrus is the only player in MLB history to make the big leagues with the name Elvis. Unless you count Lance Berkman, whose nickname is Fat Elvis, amoung others.
Also, Ryan Zimmerman would destroy either player at either position. (25 OOZ plays already, with a .770 RZR. The kid just ain't fucking human.)
Also, fix your fucking blog so that it sends out an email every time someone adds a comment to a post that a person has already commented on.
ReplyDeleteI do not know how to do this, but it can be done with blogger.
Okay, Tim Jr. Thanks for all the research you did. I'm sure your boss enjoys you spending all your time at work looking up useless stats like Kurkjian does. The only difference between the two of you is he gets PAID for the same crap. This is exactly why I hate stats. You can make numbers do anything you want them to if you crunch them long enough and ignore the big picture.
ReplyDeleteLet me break this down for you with two simple factors. 1). Andrus has a better OOZ than Young because Young actually POSITIONS himself to make plays. Stats don't take into account baseball smarts, just ask Cal Ripken Jr. about this. 2). 1st basemen. Chris Davis has zero errors this year. His Range Factor per game is 9.43. Compare this to the league average of 8.29 and you greatly reduce Andrus' errors while increasing his precious OOZ and Revised Zone Rating. Trust me, look at any of the highlight plays for Elvis (you know, the ones that boost his OOZ) and you will see Davis making a stellar play on the first base end to ensure the out. Let's look at 2008. The three players who combined to make the vast majority of starts at 1st base were Frank Catalanotto, Hank Blalock and Chris Davis. Their Range Factors per Game in that season were 6.97, 8.09 and 7.69 vs. league average of 8.01. They did Young no favors while Young still committed a paltry 7 errors. Thanks to your math, you admitted that Andrus is on pace for 28.
I do love watching Elvis play shortstop, and he will only get better. But don't try to tell me that he is a "much improved replacement to the less than stellar Michael Young". That's just using numbers to make you look much smarter than you are.
That last paragraph was aimed at Kurkjian, by the way.
ReplyDeleteDude... who works on Memorial Day? I spent my day off looking up those stats.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to Chris Davis on that play Elvis made in the hole in the 1st inning yesterday against A-Rod?
Why wasn't A-Rod thrown at, btw?
How good is the kid defensively that you guys are gonna bring up later on playing first base?
Chico Man getting PWNED on his own blog. Imagine that.
ReplyDeleteThat was actually a cogent, well thought out, and sensible blog post, Chico Man. You're growing up so fast!
Really, this all just boils down to the fact that Chico Man hates black people.
ReplyDeleteWHERE'S THE NEW POSTS??!?
ReplyDelete